Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXUS64 KEPZ 180537
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1037 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1029 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

 - Breezy to windy conditions this afternoon with areas of
   blowing dust in the afternoon. Peak gusts around 45 miles per
   hour.

 - Cooler weather returns on Sunday as below normal temperatures
   linger through next week. This cold snap looks to remain dry
   across Southern New Mexico and West Texas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

Winds subsiding tonight for the majority of the area with an
exiting surface low over north Texas. Gusty conditions will stick
around through most of the night over the mountain ridges and east
slopes, in particular NE El Paso, WSMR, and the Hudspeth
Highlands.

Saturday will be another breezy day, but not quite as windy as
today. West flow 15 to 25 mph will be most common, with patchy
blowing dust. Lowland highs in the upper 50s are right near
normal for mid-January, but another cool down is on the way.

1050mb Saskatchewan surface high will allow arctic-sourced air to
spill down the Southern and High Plains Saturday evening. This
will be part of a long-term cold snap for the majority of the
central of eastern US this week. Locally, this cold front is
expected to reach us late Saturday night, indicated by the sudden
wind shift to the ENE. Current forecast shows a modest cool down
of 8-12 degrees for most locations, keeping us below climate
normals through most of next week. Latest guidance isn`t quite as
severe with this cool down, and most models keep El Paso`s high
temperature in the 45-55 degree range through next week. Another
push of cold air is timed for next Tuesday, reinforcing cold air
advection into the region. Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest
of the period, and there`s good confidence that the combination of
gusty east winds and bitterly cold temperatures may warrant Cold
Weather Advisories for much of southern New Mexico and far west
Texas as wind chills fall to single digits overnight.

Unlike our last cold snap, this pattern looks quite dry and snow
probabilities remain low. Extended outlook looks dry locally, but
still cool.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

VFR conditions will persist through at least the late morning
hours. Breezy west winds will continue tonight with speeds
generally 12-17G20-27KT. LLWS expected at KELP overnight tonight
with some potential at the remaining terminals. Skies remain clear
overnight and throughout the TAF period. BLDU possible again
tomorrow afternoon with greatest confidence in seeing at least
hazy skies will be KELP, KLRU, and KDMN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

Breezy northwest flow continues on Saturday though wind speeds
will be weaker than today. Gusts of 25-35 mph will be common in
the afternoon, with Very Good smoke ventilation. Min RH 20-30%
under sunny skies and seasonal temperatures.

Cold front arriving Sunday morning will reintroduce below normal
temperatures through most of next week. Southeast flow Sunday will
quickly turn back to the west on Monday. Tuesday will be the
coldest day of the week as east flow pushes more cold air into the
region. Min RH will hold steady in the 15-25% range each
afternoon as dry conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  38  60  28  49 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            31  56  19  44 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               32  58  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               26  54  18  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               19  32   9  27 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    28  58  21  47 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              26  49  19  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   28  58  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                22  55  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       37  59  29  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                31  59  21  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             31  62  21  52 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               31  52  20  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   33  61  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             33  57  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           36  58  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            26  57  19  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    26  60  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 33  58  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                28  55  20  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  25  47  11  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                21  42  11  36 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 19  44   9  34 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  19  51   9  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                26  58  19  49 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                23  56  18  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             23  49  17  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   23  51  16  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    12  58   7  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               24  53  18  48 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  28  53  20  44 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   23  58  20  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  24  56  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           28  58  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               28  53  25  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher