Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

147
FXUS64 KEPZ 141725
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1125 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
 - A slow moving Pacific storm system will bring a second day of
   strong winds from the west and southwest today. Areas of
   blowing dust are expected across the desert lowlands this
   afternoon.

 - The returning strong winds and continued low humidity will lead
   to widespread critical fire weather conditions across a wide
   area.

 - Breezy conditions and near normal temperatures will round out
   the work week. But windy and dry conditions look to return
   Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Deep troughing remains in place over the western US, with a sharp
shortwave trough rounding its base over southern Nevada. High
level moisture is also streaming into NW Mexico and spilling
across the Borderlands. RAP analysis shows a double-barreled
surface low centered over northeastern Colorado into western
Oklahoma. The low over Colorado will deep later today as the upper
level trough approaches the Four Corners, and upper level
divergence and winds crossing the Rockies intensify.

Models show two mid-level wind maximums moving across New Mexico
today -- the stronger one way up north, and the other (75 knots at
H5) bisecting the CWA by lunchtime, and trailing back across Otero
and Dona Ana Counties by 3 PM. As a result, the strongest wind
gusts this afternoon may occur during the 2 PM to 5 PM time frame,
and will be worst over south-central NM and into El Paso County.
Gusts 45 to 50 mph will be common in those areas, while lighter
gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common across southwestern New
Mexico (northern Grant/Hidalgo counties). Gusts to 60 mph are
expected east of the San Andres/Organ mountains, and across the
exposed higher terrain of the Sacramento Mountains. Northeast El
Paso may see some gusts around 55 mph, just shy of warning
criteria. (The peak gust yesterday at ELP of 71 mph is believed to
be legitimate, but something of a localized fluke).

With winds coming from 250-260 degrees, expect blowing dust areas
will be very similar to yesterday.

Temperatures will likely still top the 90 mark at ELP today.

Longwave troughing will persist on Thursday, with a weaker
secondary shortwave trough rolling across southern Colorado. This
will keep weak lee troughing in place to our east, with breezy
conditions (gusts 25-35 mph) lingering. Temperatures will drop
into the mid-upper-80s.

Lighter winds will prevail Friday and Saturday, even as a
moisture-starved shortwave trough rolls right across the area
Friday night.

Confidence continues to increase in yet another deep Pacific
trough carving out across the west Sunday into Monday. This one
looks to dig deeper than what we`re dealing with presently, but
still will carry no moisture. Another round of wind and dust is
looking increasingly likely Sunday and Monday, though the timing
of the shortwave trough passage currently looks like it will be
ill-timed for peak heating/mixing. This could easily shift by
several hours between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Another day of strong winds and areawide blowing dust which will
bring the termimals (minum KTCS) periods of MVFR and IFR
conditions due to low VSBY. Winds from 250-270 and increasing to
20-25kts with gusts 35-45kts...with tempo 30+kts gusts to 60kts.
Widespread blowing dust with VSBY averaging 3-5SM, but some plumes
of thicker dust with VSBY 1-3SM expected, with potential impacts
to KDMN, KLRU, and KELP btwn 21-02Z. Expect dust to settle aft 02z
with winds diminishing to 20-30kts aft 02-03Z...and 10-20kts by
06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025
A slow moving Pacific storm system will bring another round of
strong west winds amidst continued dry conditions later this
morning into the afternoon hours, in a near-repeat of yesterday.
Continued breeziness has led to poor RH recovery in some areas,
especially east of desert mountain ranges. Most open areas have
seen RH reach 25 to 30 percent, but the areas experiencing
downslope winds are still stuck around 18-25 percent.

Up in the Sacramento mountains, the winds are more sporadic, and
there are pockets of RH values around 30 percent, with more
sheltered spots in the 40s. As a result, a few spots could see
Minimum RH values drop into the upper-10s this afternoon in the
higher terrain, whereas yesterday they stayed in the mid-20s.

Winds today will be similar to yesterday, with sustained 25 to 35
mph winds and gusts to 50 mph common, and as high as 60 mph in the
Sacramento Mountains, and east of the Organ/San Andres ranges.

Lingering breeziness on Thursday will result in enhanced fire
weather conditions, but likely falling short of critical
thresholds.

Lighter winds are expected Friday and Saturday, but confidence is
increasing in more wind and higher-end critical fire weather
conditions Sunday and Monday as another deep trough digs in across
the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  64  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            90  61  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               85  51  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               85  52  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               61  39  60  41 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    83  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              72  42  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   85  47  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                81  44  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       88  63  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                91  63  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             93  65  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               83  59  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   93  63  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             87  58  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  60  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            85  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    86  48  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 86  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                86  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  72  45  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                70  41  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 71  41  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  74  34  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                79  44  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                83  43  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             70  37  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   76  40  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    76  40  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               72  39  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  77  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   84  45  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  83  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           82  48  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               77  47  78  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire
     Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
     056 Hudspeth County.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-
     Western El Paso County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Salt Basin-Western El Paso
     County.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and
     Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
     and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
     and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
     NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Grant
     County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
     Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
     the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
     County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
     County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
     Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest
     Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres
     Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
     Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Southeast Tularosa
     Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres
     Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-
     West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird